There are a lot of key ingredients that contribute to winning a prestigious Grand Slam title, and the draw is definitely one of them.
The obvious elements of recent form, fitness, health and confidence are the most talked about, but who you play, when you play them, and the physical and mental toll it takes to secure victory are all critical elements in a successful run to the title.
The most in-form player in the men’s draw is Roger Federer, who won a tour-leading 73 matches in 2014. He already has a title in 2015 with a win in Brisbane last week, but the draw did him no favours as he seeks to win a fifth title here in Melbourne.
Federer’s first opponent, Yen-Hsun Lu of Chinese Taipei, reached the quarters in Chennai last week, showing solid form leading into the Australian Open. Lu, ranked 46 in the world, also played Federer in the first round of Wimbledon in 2009, losing 7-5 6-3 6-2. Lu has won his opening round at the Australian Open for the past three years, and caused a huge upset in 2009 by defeating No.11 seed David Nalbandian in five sets. Lu is definitely not to be looked past in the draw by the Swiss maestro.
Federer’s first potential meeting with another seed is against Jeremy Chardy (29) in the third round. Chardy matches up really well against Federer, and all three of their encounters in 2014 went the distance. Chardy lost 6-3 in the third set in Brisbane, saved a match point in Rome in defeating Federer 8-6 in the third set tiebreak, and then lost 6-4 in the third set at the Paris Masters. Chardy believes, which makes him even more lethal.
Federer’s first potential match against a Top 20 seed could come in the next round against Tommy Robredo. The in-form Spaniard defeated Federer in straight sets the last time they played in a Grand Slam – in the round of 16 at the U.S. Open in 2013.
If Federer survives these very dangerous opponents to reach the fourth round, there’s nothing but pain on the horizon for the rest of the journey.
Federer potentially could play either Grigor Dimitrov or Andy Murray in the quarterfinals. Federer defeated Murray in the Australian Open final in 2010, lost to him in five sets in the semis in 2013, and defeated him in four sets in the quarters last year. This heavyweight battle could take a lot out of both players as they seek to reach the semifinals, where nemesis Rafael Nadal could be waiting.
Nadal defeated Federer in straight sets in the Australian Open semis last year, and also in the same round in 2012. They contested a thrilling final Down Under in 2009, which Nadal won in five sets. It’s a tough ask for Federer to climb the Nadal mountain here in Melbourne – an opponent he has never conquered at this tournament.
If Federer somehow does navigate his way to the final, the tournament’s red-hot favorite and No.1 seed, Novak Djokovic, is schedule to be waiting on the other side of the net. Federer beat Djokovic here in straight sets in the round of 16 in 2007, but lost in straight sets in the semis in 2008 and 2011.
The draw has not been kind to Federer, as he has potential road-blocks from start to finish. An 18th Grand Slam title at the age of 33 is certainly possible, but it is going to require a steely nerve and straightforward matches not to sap his energy in week one. Staying fresh for the second week will be crucial as he attempts to rewrite the history books once again.
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