One of those spots is assured of going to Coco Gauff, whose straight-sets win over Iga Swiatek on Tuesday -- just her second over the Pole in 13 career meetings -- ensured that the World No.3 has a place in the knockout rounds. But her position is up in the air -- though the American largely controls her own destiny in the race to finish as group winner.
One of those spots is assured of going to Coco Gauff, whose straight-sets win over Iga Swiatek on Tuesday -- just her second over the Pole in 13 career meetings -- ensured that the World No.3 has a place in the knockout rounds. But her position is up in the air -- though the American largely controls her own destiny in the race to finish as group winner.
Swiatek, and Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova, are in contention for the remaining spot. On Thursday, Gauff will face Krejcikova and Swiatek will face 2023 WTA Finals runner-up Jessica Pegula, who has no chance of repeating that feat in Riyadh, having already been eliminated from semifinal contention with two straight-set losses to Gauff and Krejcikova.
Let's break the road to the semifinals down for all three women.
How can Gauff win the group?
A win for Gauff against Krejcikova will put her into the semifinals as the group's winner with a 3-0 record, no matter the result between Swiatek and Pegula.
Crucially, the first-place finisher in the Orange Group will avoid a semifinal against World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka, who has qualified for the semifinals as the winner of the Purple Group.
Gauff can also finish in the top spot if Krejcikova beats her in three sets AND Swiatek beats Pegula.
What is Swiatek's path to the semifinals?
Swiatek, the 2023 WTA Finals champion, has only one path to the knockout rounds: She must beat Pegula, and Gauff must also win, for Swiatek to qualify in the second spot.
Where does Krejcikova fit in?
Krejcikova -- who lost a 6-4, 3-0 lead to Swiatek earlier in the week -- put herself back in contention with her 6-3, 6-3 win over Pegula. The Czech can clinch the top spot in the group for herself -- and avoid a match against Sabalenka, whom she's lost to six times in seven matches, in the semifinals -- if she beats Gauff in two sets and Swiatek beats Pegula, or if she beats Gauff and Pegula beats Swiatek.
Krejcikova will qualify behind Gauff if Pegula beats Swiatek.
Well I did say it would come down to who's more solid on the forehand and serve and it kind of did.
Despite Iga having plenty of chances in set 2 in particular (and being up a break twice) Gauff won all the important point and subsequently won the match in straights.
Quality wise the match was all over the place from both. I'd say only the first half of set 1 was good.
Iga definitely didn't have her rhythm today on serve or forehand, and once again made too many unforced errors very much the result of lack of match play.
As I said I didn't have high expectations with this tournament but I'm still hopeful for her match against Pegula on Thursday.
If she plays one solid match this tournament without getting broken that will be a win for this tournament.
Regardless of how the result with Saba in the semis would go. Selfishly I just want to see her play a bit more before the season comes to a close.
But of course it's not only up to Iga. It's up to the woman that beat her. She wins Iga goes through (round robin math is confusingly ridiculous).
Jazda Iga, go out there and play without any pressure. Plenty of players have won this thing even though they were down and out. Never say never.